It is hard to predict all potential influences on a peace process. You can anticipate motivators like money, power, envy, rivalry, and politics. But this last intrusion into the Casamance conflict comes from an unexpected place.
Today, Senegal announced that it was cutting diplomatic ties - for the second time in 3 months. The rupture comes after the Chief of Staff of the Senegalese army issued a report that positively confirms that the MFDC has been using Iranian weapons to fight Senegal soldiers. The report makes reference to two previous shipments of arms to Gambia that may also have filtered into the hands of the Casamance independence movement. Last December, Nigerian authorities seized a large shipment of 32 containers bound for Gambia. And the fall out of that highly publicized event led Senegal to file a complaint with the UN Security Council via the United States ambassador to the United Nations.
Ever since Iran embarked on the pursuit of nuclear power, the U.S. has sought the support of its allies to isolate Iran politically and economically. When Senegal - a longtime ally of the United States - brazenly supported Iran's plans for nuclear power, it created a malaise in US-Senegalese relations.
The decision to rescind its relationship with Iran comes at a time when the death toll of Senegalese soldiers at the hands of well-equipped Casamance rebel has become intolerable. The emergence of the army's report put the final nails in the coffin, and opened a new possibility for agreement between Senegal and the U.S. on the question of Iran's isolation.
Senegal and Gambia followed suit immediately with the agreement to form joint patrols along the Gambian-Casamance border by April 2011. It feels like a test of Gambia public statements that it does not support the rebels in Casamance and a good way to keep closer tabs on what is happening along this very porous border. Something tells me that the offer of U.S. assistance to help monitor border activity is not far behind. What impact U.S. government involvement in this conflict will have on our program is also in question. Until now, all the rebel groups have seen our organization as neutral. That may change should we suddenly find ourselves on the side of a U.S. military assistance program that is less than friendly to those seeking refuge in Gambia.
I am off to spend the weekend on one of the famous beaches of Casamance. I have been here for nearly 4 months but have held off visiting until Jenny arrived. Looking forward to seeing what all the fuss has been about.
From talks of violence to relaxation on the beach of the rebels. Must be poetry because logic does not read like this.
ReplyDeleteHaqqika
may all benefit
for all relations